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During 2009 activities concentrated on the relatively large technical assistance project for the management of the Monte Cristo trinational protected area, which is an important element of the Trifinio Plan, a land management and sustainable development effort in a border area that coincides for El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The assistance project has been contracted since November 2007 and APESA is acting under a consortium agreement with the Italian-Belgian AGRECO consulting group, who a are the leaders of the consulting contract. The project, originally datelined for July 2010, has fallen behind the original schedule due to the political problems in Honduras, between June and November 2009 and a possible extension of the contract is now under discussion. During all of 2009 APESA participated as partners with several European and Canadian firms in presenting proposals to several tenders in the Central American area. Two of these are pending as of March 2010. Also, on February of this year, APESA signed a contract with an agency of the European Union to execute a technical assistance program for the Presidential Planning Office (SEGEPLAN) in analyzing past land use planning in the Petén area, with special attention to the Integrated Development Plan and the results derived from its application.
OMENS OF
DISASTER...? At the close of the twentieth century and the start
of a new millennium, a strong debate on the future of planet earth has
gained momentum around several main issues: population growth, the ozone
layer, natural resource exploitation -mainly
agriculture- climate change -mostly
around the global warming debate- the use of water resources and polar
meltdown. This paper tries to sum up the latest evidence on
these issues, as the most significant elements affecting the environmental
question and the conceptual debate that, somehow, also seems to relate to
political claimers -or
disclaimers- that mark the environmental question in the left to right
spectrum. This in turn defines advocates who support a
variety of interventions to avert disasters and those that oppose any such
actions. This paper also tries to find a relational link of these five
issues and to present a hopefully balanced account of what has been
perceived. 1
POPULATION
GROWTH In
a span of over twenty years of experience on this issue, the author has
found a general attitude of almost violent reaction in raising agreement
or opposition on the population growth subject. Strange enough, there is
agreement between far right and left advocates in each one�s particular
approach, the former because of doctrinal religious opposition to planning
practices and the latter�s belief that misery, revolution and eventual
change are best fed by pressures of the increasing population numbers on
the prevailing order. Both
positions are, unfortunately, dogmatic. As
any economist will tell, the starting point of the subject is the
Malthusian Theory, that has a similarity with the subsistence theory of
wages[1],
with the difference that Malthus`s prediction encompasses several
generations or even centuries, whereas the subsistence theory predicts
over years or, at the most, decades. Malthus
starts from the unequivocal assumption that food is necessary to the
existence of man and that there is a natural instinct to procreate, both
as fixed laws of nature. However, granting this, population has a tendency
to grow by geometric increases, whereas agricultural production does so in
a linear growth tendency. These
assumptions were based on actual statistical information, as available
during Malthus`s time (1766 � 1834).
After
Malthus, another significant indicator is the so called Demographic
Transition Model (DTM), postulated in 1929 by the demographer Warren
Thompson, that explains the transformation of countries from high birth
rates and correlative high death rates to a situation of low death and
also birth rates, as an intrinsic part of economic development from
pre-industrial to industrialized economies.
This highly significant element of population growth has been
explained in a five-stage model: Stage 1: Pre-industrial society where birth and death
rates are relatively high and more or less balanced; Stage 2: In developing countries death rates have a
tendency to drop significantly due to improvements in food supply and
sanitation. This follows changes in farming technique, availability of
better technology, health care and education. As birth rates continue to
develop at high levels, an imbalance takes place and
significant increases in population is a deciding element at this
stage; Stage 3: As development in education and
corresponding attitudes occur, contraception starts to generalize and
birth rates fall. This happens in an environment in which there is an
increase in wages, well beyond the subsistence level, and an increase in
urbanization which enhances contraception practices through demonstrative
process, increase in status and education of women, reduction in the
values of child labor, an increasing parental investment in children�s
education and other social changes that lead to a leveling in population
growth; Stage 4: Representative of present conditions in
European countries and Japan, where development variables are high, with
death and birth rates low, the latter at subsistence level or even lower.
This characterizes itself as a threat to maintaining an industrialization
process and, as average population age increases, an also increasing
burden on the younger and shrinking working class takes place Stage 5: This has been added to the original model
that, at the time of its conception, did not go through the experience of
what is now called the deindustrialization, or the transition from
manufacturing based economies into services and information, which is very
descriptive of some European countries and Japan, where population is
reproducing well below replacement levels. To add to these new trends, an
increase in deaths rates is expected, ironically due to what is called diseases
of wealth, such as obesity and diabetes. Relevant statistics on the growth of world
population are, on the long term and from 6000BC to the 18th
century, as shown on Graph 1.
According to these figures, in a first span of 7,000 years total world
population increased 10 times, whereas in the next 2,000 years, the
increase was 61 times, vastly confirming Malthus` geometric growth
concept. Graph
1 WORLD
POPULATION 6000BC-2000AC (millions)
Table
1 WORLD POPULATION BY CONTINENT(1900
� 2005 and Projections to 2050. In millions)
Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies Table 1 shows total population statistics by each one of the six continents, every five years, from 1900 to 2000 and projections from 2005 to 2050. The historical first half of the 100 years (1900 to 1950) rate of growth for the total world figure is a yearly average of 1.4 percent, whereas the second half increased to 1.8 percent. The projected growth, from 2000 to 2050 has been estimated at a yearly 0.8 percent. Predictions, such as the above, can be the subject of
much discussion, due to the fact that population growth varies
significantly between developed and developing countries, where birth
rates are below and above replacement rates, in each case.
Death rates can also change due to wars, catastrophes or advances
in medicine. The United
Nations and the U.S. Bureau of the Census regularly revise these
forecasts. However, these figures become more significant when related to density of population and available world food production. Graph 2WORLD POPULATION(1900-2000. In millions)
Graph
3 WORLD
POPULATION (1980
� 2050. In millions)
Between 1900 and 2005, population in Africa and Asia
has grown 6.7 and 7.8 times, whereas Europe has grown 1.8 times. In our
continent, North America[2]
has grown 4.0 times and Latin America 7.5 times. This shows that there is
a very high correlation between population growth and comparative
development, which in turn proposes that population control measures -if
undertaken- should try to find an equilibrium in reducing growth rates in
the underdeveloped world sphere and strive to maintain replacement levels
in the developed areas. An
ideal situation would be to reach replacement levels as a global policy. All of this gains more understanding on how present
population numbers play with natural resource availability -in principle,
food production- and the density vis-�-vis land availability, all
related to technological elements. Approximate figures on earth water and land cover, as
well as estimated land use are as shown in Table 2. If total land cover is used, the density of
inhabitants per square kilometer was 8.1 in 1900, 16.9 in 1950, 24.8 in
1970 and 40.7 in 2000. In other words, an almost fivefold increase in one
century. Projections are 52.7 in 2025 and 60.0 in 2050. If tillable land
and permanent crops are not included, population density would raise to 59
in 2000 and to 86 in 2050. Further
deductions of forest cover to half the present figure would allow
densities of 76.4 and 112.4 in the same two projected years. It must be
assumed that projected population growth would necessarily imply more land
cover use for food -and probably fuel- production, which would restrict
land availability for housing and other space requirements to meet
population needs. A search of opinions on acceptable densities made in the
Internet has recommended that an ideal average population density suggests
50 to 100 /square kilometer and a maximum of 150 inhabitants. The analysis of population growth and its
implications on human livelihood seems to refer, foremost, on the fact
that enough food production is available to assure an adequate quality of
life. Table 2GLOBAL
WATER AND LAND USE COVER
From 1950 to 1984 grain production worldwide had an
increase of 250 percent. This veritable green revolution was made possible
by the exploitation of fossil fuels to produce fertilizers, pesticides and
fuel powered irrigation. This, however and true to economic structuralism
concepts, has had other implications that have put Malthusian critics to
the test, due to the events of 2008: an increase in grain prices following
a diversion of grain supply levels to produce bio fuels and the sudden
increase of crude oil to an all time high of $ 143 a barrel. The population growth question is best approached by
a structural model; that is, the determination of a pattern of
relationships that is assumed to exist among variables involved, in this
case with a growing human presence on the planet earth and its
sustainability. This model also has implications both in time and in space
dynamics. The most simplified approach would establish as variables and
their relationship, those shown in Diagram 1.
The functionality of this model and its coherence is backed by the
fact that every one of these variables are current issues of intense
debate and attention by governments and the scientific community, both in
their cause as well as their effect. Diagram 1POPULATION GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY MODEL
2.
AGRICULTURE Global indicators on agricultural production seem to
indicate a leveling off, congruent with population estimates. There are,
however, two very important facts that need to be analyzed separately and
that refer to countries in the developed part of the world, that are well
off insofar as food availability and consumption is concerned and
countries where undernourishment and straight-out hunger are high. These regions also show demographic tendencies of high
population growth rates and will thus require efforts in producing food
stocks that are needed to mitigate or ideally erase hunger. If this is to
be achieved, there will be increasing need to have available land to
produce these additional food requirements, water for irrigation and
fossil based fertilizers and insecticides, all of which will have a cause
and effect relation that will filter through all the variables, as shown
in Diagram 1. These cause and
effect relations also imply an iterative behavior of the whole model.
The most informed source on global agriculture is the
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), of the United Nations and the
following is a condensed version of several documents and publications
dealing on the subject. The proportion of people who live in developing
nations with average food intakes lower then 2,200 kcal per day has
reportedly been reduced from 57 percent in 1964 to 10 percent in 1999. In
spite of this seemingly positive indicator, to this date 776 million
people still remain undernourished. Some areas, like the Sub-Saharan
Africa, where numbers of poor rose steeply in the 1990s, seem likely to
continue a similar growing trend. Be it as it may, food production will have to
increase, on one side to meet growing population needs and, on the other,
to reduce under-nourishment taking into account that there are three
sources of growth in crop production: expanding land areas, an increase in
crop frequency -which implies
irrigation in many cases- and the improvement of crop yields. Regarding additional land use and according to FAO,
developing countries will need, in the next 30 years, an additional
1,200,000 km2 for crops, which is about 4.1 percent of total tillable
land. From the figures of Table 1, an estimated 114 million km2 are, in
some way, suitable for production of arable and permanent crops. This,
however, is theoretical, as close to 40 percent
refers to shrinking woodlands that should not be converted to other
uses. These generalizations have to be viewed, once more, in the context
of developing countries: in the Near East and North Africa 87 percent of
suitable land is already being farmed and in South Asia the same figure is
94 percent. The stark reality
of this last figure is that the population of this area, even with
estimates that foresee a less dynamic growth rate, will double between
2005 and 2050, which means that the feeding of this population will very
probably have to depend on crop productions of other
-most certainly developed countries- areas of the planet. An increase in crop frequency mainly implies a
growing use of water for irrigation. In the developing countries present
irrigated areas total about 2.0 million square kilometers and FAO foresees
that by 2030 the introduction of irrigation in land scarce areas will grow
by about 20 percent. Once again, in developing areas such as South Asia,
the Near East and North Africa where use of renewable fresh water
resources for irrigation is as high as 58 percent, greater efficiency in
water use for crops will be necessary. Regarding the improvement of yields, most of the
additional production that may be filled with yield growth has already
been achieved. This means
that technological improvements have or are reaching the ceiling of
possibilities. According to FAO and as an example, for wheat yields a 2
percent future growth versus 3 percent past growth will be a reality. For
rice, the same figures are 2.3 to 1.1 percent. Also, growth in fertilizer
use in developing countries is expected to slow to 1.1 percent per year in
the next three decades. All of the above has not considered advances in
biotechnology and there seems to be a consensus that the 21st
century will need another green revolution, but much more accountable to
environmental restoration and protection. All this is not quite defined,
as discussions related to environmental issues, rage on. As the central issue is food production, livestock
and fisheries should also be reviewed. Between 1964 and 1999, per capita meat and dairy
production in developed countries rose by 150 and 60 percent,
respectively. According to FAO, yields are and will keep improving, which
derives to a lower growth in animal numbers, is beneficial in avoiding
additional environmental damage from grazing and wastes. One very clear
example is the New Zealand dairy industry that has managed to become on of
the most efficient worldwide and an important supplier to developing
countries. In the case of developed countries, projected consumption of
meat and dairies will be at the cost of a trade deficit. Fish production has grown at geometric rates.
The 1999 average of sea products per capita consumption was 16.3
kg. By 2030 it is expected to
reach 20 kg/person an amount significantly lower than the potential demand
due to the little discussed fact that ocean fish stocks are widely
over-fished, if not depleted. Aquaculture will grow by 5 to 7 percent a
year from now until 2015, but this also is expected to be done under forms
of management that are sustainable and environmentally sound. Land use practices, as described all along in this
chapter, are directly related and exert definite pressures on two factors:
forestry coverage and, in a very direct way, the environment. During the
decade of 1990, world forest cover declined an average of 94,000 km2 per
year. Addition of needed areas for croplands will increase by 17 percent
between 2005 and 2030, most of which will mean forest cover clearance.
World demand for round wood is expected to raise 60 percent, in the
same period. According to FAO, deforestation is expected to decrease due
to the fact that countries such as Bangladesh, China, India turkey and
Vietnam are planting more forest area then what is being cut.
This, however, is not the case in, for instance, Latin America and,
notably Brazil, where the critical Amazon forest is under very large
pressure, having already lost one fifth of its original extension and
loosing forested areas at the rate of 11 thousand km2 each year. The following is a summary of FAO�s stance on how
agriculture and its development to feed world population plays a decisive
role on the environment: -
Many of the environmental problems that have been associated with
agriculture will remain, due to growing losses in biodiversity and its
impact on the natural balance of nature; -
Use of Nitrogen fertilizers and emissions of methane and ammonia
from livestock will continue to be a major source of water and air
pollution, the latter expected to increase 60 percent by 2030. This will
be a major source of atmospheric carbon dioxide; -
Global warming will have negative effects on agriculture in tropic
and sub tropic areas, due to raising ocean levels and increased drought
and excessive rain periods. In temperate and northerly areas, production
will increase as climate becomes milder; -
Fossil fuel emissions can be reduced by slower deforestation and by
adequate farm practices. 3. WATER Water generation has a natural cycle defined by a
circular motion through the atmosphere, geosphere and hydrosphere. The
expanding human activity has impacted very seriously on this cycle, due to
imbalances in demand and supply, pollution of water resources and
ecosystem deterioration, all consequence of urban and industrial
wastewater. There are evident signs of growing global water related
problems and hazards, the most obvious being a more frequent occurrence of
floods and droughts. Current statistics show that one third of world
population is affected by water scarcity in 2005 and one sixth of humanity -over
a billion people- live in areas where water is scarce or is available in
rivers and aquifers, but the infrastructure to make it usable, is lacking.
Most of this is due, especially in developing countries, to an
attitude that does not value water at its real economic cost, through
wasteful practices. Critical examples of scarcity, which could very well
expand to other areas, are India, China, Mexico and the Colorado River
basin in the USA. Another significant cause of water scarcity in much
of the world is the fact that crop production requires up to 70 times more
water than what is used in drinking and other domestic uses, particularly
in the developing countries. Due
to a growing urbanization as well as the use of fossil fertilizer and
insecticide runoff, most of the water available is unfit for human
consumption. As explained in Chapter 2, world population has to be
fed, which greatly depends on the fact that crop production requires
significant amounts of water. This plays against the fact that groundwater
supplies are declining at an alarming worldwide rate, that loss of water
rights and lack of proper access is growing, and the existence of frequent
periods of pollution, flooding and drought are more frequent. Adding to the above, is the proven fact that glaciers
in every region of the world are melting. Recent examples are evident in
Switzerland, Norway, Canada, and Bolivia.
The melting rates cannot be explained by known historical trends,
but the fact that they are the world�s largest fresh water supply,
presently running off to the oceans, is worrying. The water cycle variations can have remarkable
changes from one continent to the other. One such occurrence is associated
with Asian monsoon season and with land conditions related by unique
tectonic plate dynamics. This
causes large seasonal and annual variations in precipitation and in the
agricultural activity, primarily in paddy cultivation on alluvial flood
plains that are, due to the large population increase, undergoing an
urbanization process. All of this will shortly worsen current water
problems in Asia. To sum up, the availability and use of water is
undergoing a crisis that has a tendency to worsen in the medium term. This
is not due to the fact that there is not enough water, but because of
choices that societies make. It is possible to reduce water scarcity, use
it to feed an ever-growing population and address poverty, but the key
tradeoff is with the environment. Communities and their governments will
have to make decisions on how to allocate and manage water resources and
some of the parties involved will have to accept drastic changes in
lifestyles and particular interests. This can be politically very
sensitive. 4. CLIMATIC CHANGE 4.1
Basic Concepts There is nothing new in climate changes as a
common event in the planet�s history. The basic indicator that has been
used to measure these changes is average yearly temperature, taken as the
monthly mean of daily (24 hours) temperature. Climate changes, represented by relatively large
cooling and warming periods have occurred and been registered geologically
from the Tertiary Period, as far back as 60,000,000 years ago.
Dominance of human presence in the Late Pleistocene Period started
about 1,000,000 years ago, all of which indicates very large periods of
time, measured in millions of years and signifying events from ice ages to
long periods of warmth. Historically, these very long-term periods came
from natural factors, such as huge volcanic eruptions, changes in the
Earth�s orbit and changing amounts of energy released by the Sun. Recent
Antarctica ice cores have been known to span 800,000 years, which included
8 glacial periods timed by orbital variations with warm interglacial
periods, comparable to present temperatures. In a very shorter time span, during the last 2,000
years, climate has been found to be quite stable, with three distinct
periods of instability: the so called Medieval Climate Anomaly (900 to
1300AD) where evidence has been found that Europe, Greenland and Asia
experienced relative warmth; the Little Ice Age between 1500 and 1850
which did not register the formation of new ice sheets, but was
characterized by an average temperature drop of 3.6� Celsius; the
Industrial Era, an additional warm period that has started in the last 100
years, coinciding with a technological capacity of measuring and
understanding such events, as a result of human activities. Graph 4 WORLD
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (1867
� 2001. Degrees Celcius)
These recent developments show that the
burning of fossil fuels and deforestation
- events not registered in a known span of millions of years- have
apparently caused what is known as a concentration of green-house gases, a
natural occurrence that prevents heat from escaping to space and provide
the necessary warmth for life, as it is known on the planet. This
concentration has prompted an average increase in temperature, since 1850,
of between 0.6� and 0.8� Celsius when the eight warmest years on record
have occurred since 1998, correlated with changes in rainfall patterns,
snow and ice cover as well as raising sea levels. Graph 4 shows world average yearly temperature from
1867 to 2001, where two trends are very obvious: 1867 to 1891 with a
decreasing trend, 1892 to 1978 with a moderately upward trend, and from
here to 2001 at a greater raising trend Climatic models generated from a large amount of
information that has been gathered predict that, if present trends
continue, by the end of the 21st Century, average temperature
of the earth surface may increase from 2.1� to
4.0� Celsius. There seems to be a generalized consensus that the
global average temperature during the last few decades has been warmer
than in any comparable period, in the last 400 years. Certain locations
have registered higher temperatures in a 25 year span, since AD 900. However, the farther back, the more uncertainties arise on
the credibility of the information. At the writing of this paper, the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of the U.S. government has proposed
regulating carbon dioxide and other gases as pollutants, citing potential
impacts on climate and diseases, especially malaria and dengue fever. 4.2
Ozone Layer In 1974 two chemists from the University of California, Irvine, published a scientific paper warning that human generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) could cause serious damage to the earth�s protective layer. The loss of ozone would increase the amount of ultra-violet UV-B reaching the earth�s surface, increasing skin cancer and cataracts and potentially cause destructive climate changes. It is also suspected of a variety of biological consequences such as damage to plants and reduction of plankton populations. The theory was severely attacked by corporations and
politicians linked to the fluorocarbon industry, until 1985 and the sudden discovery of the Antarctic ozone
hole, which prompted the Montreal Protocol, a 1987 agreement to phase out
ozone destroying chemicals. In spite of this, ozone depletion worsened in
the 1990`s, with peak losses reaching 70% in Antarctica, 30% in the
Arctic, 8% in Australia and 15% in New Zealand. A phase out of CFC use is
now well on its way. Discussion on the connection between ozone depletion
and global warming is still undecided. A long- term modeling of the
process, its measurement, study, design of theories and testing will take
decades to document and gain acceptance to, ultimately, become the
dominant paradigm. The latest proposed theories suggest that between 78
and 89% of the ozone has been lost and that present restrictions agreed on
in the Montreal Protocol, estimate a recovery of from 75 to 150 years. Given that the ozone layer is, in effect, undergoing
a depletion process and that this coincides, in time, with observed
climatic changes, a relation between these two would seem evident. This
same coincidence might be true in the case of the polar meltdowns, as the
ozone depletion is more critical in these areas, as shown in Diagram 2. Diagram 2ANTARTIC
OZONE HOLE (Record size, September 2000)
Source:
NASA The Polar Regions have profound effects on global
climate and climatic conditions in the Arctic have noticeable effects on
the Antarctic, and vice versa. In March 1994 the fastest atmospheric
warming since world-wide temperature records were started 130 years ago,
was reported in the Antarctic Peninsula. This coincided with ice shelves
disintegrating along the coastlines of the northern Peninsula. As air and
sea temperatures increase, the line of average temperatures at which ice
shelves can no longer be viable, is moving southward. Other changes such as the disappearance of colonies
of penguins and the spreading of plant colonies are also evident. Feedback effects are also occurring. The loss of sea
ice reduces the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide and heat.
Climate change caused by warming of lower atmospheric temperatures cause
decreasing temperatures in the upper atmosphere, which exacerbates
stratospheric ozone loss and, added to this,
increase in UV-B levels -consistent
with the ozone hole over Antarctica-
result in decreased productivity of phytoplankton, a major link in
the Antarctic food chain. Computer models that have processed data such as
ancient climate changes derived from fossils, sediments and ice cores show
that melt water from Greenland and other Arctic ice sheets caused sea
level increases, in one instance up to 3 meters, during the Last
Interglaciation, about 120,000 years ago, which in turn triggered melting
in Antarctica, causing sea levels to rise further.
Rising seas from Arctic melt water probably destabilized ice
shelves in Antarctica, causing them to melt, break apart and fall into the
ocean, thus adding to the rising water levels. The Environmental Protecting Agency estimates that
sea levels have been rising 30 centimeters each one hundred years. In the
case of a worst-case scenario, seas could rise one meter by 2100. Each
vertical 2.5 centimeters can translate into a meter or more of flat
lowlands. Thus small islands, farmland and coastal cities with populations
to hundreds of millions could be swamped. Noticeable trends are best described in the Antarctic
by the Ross Ice Shelf, the largest mass of floating ice covering an area
de size of France, that is showing signs of a massive collapse that, in
the event, would cause a measurable increase in sea levels.
And less ice, at the poles or anywhere, means less sunlight is
reflected, accelerating global warming. The situation in the Arctic is best seen in the loss
of ice cover in Greenland, clearly evidenced below. Diagram 3GREENLAND.
ICE COVER LOSS 1992
- 2002
Source: NASA The situation in Greenland and its proximity to the polar area leads to present conditions in glacier formations in the northern and southern hemispheres and similar conditions of meltdowns due to rising temperatures. A 1999 study by the National Science Foundation found that the Columbia Glacier near Anchorage, Alaska was melting rapidly and had increased its forward speed from 25 meters per day to 115. It is expected that in a couple of years the Glacier might begin breaking off at a rapid pace, or it could melt so quickly that it stops before reaching the sea The scale of
all this is revealed in photographs of dozens of glaciers as far apart as
Alaska and Austria and from Greenland in the north to the Andes in the
south. In Switzerland there has been a 50 percent decrease in the area of
the Alps covered by glaciers over the past 150 years. However, the rate of
loss between 1979 and 2000 was three times faster. During 2003,
average glacier thickness of the Alps shrunk three meters, twice the
amount lost the year before. At these rates, almost half of the total
volume of Alpine glaciers would melt by 2025 and less than 10 percent
would remain as ice cover by the end of the century. In India and
Pakistan, the rivers that drain the huge glaciers of the Himalayas will
run strongly for the next forty years and then die away bringing flood and
then famine, as a consequence of glacier melting increasing up to 30
percent. Studies made find the biggest impact in Pakistan, where the Indus
irrigates half the country�s crops. Flows in this area could double,
before decreasing to less than half the current levels by the end of the
century. The declining flows predicted for the Ganges will also throw into
disarray a vast Indian government scheme to avoid drought by diverting
water from the country�s glacier fed northern rivers. The largest
glacier in the French Alps,
the Mer de Glace near Mont Blanc has increased its thinning rate from
around one meter between 1979 and 1994 to 4.1 meters between 2000 and
2003. In Ecuador a
team of investigators has documented and eight year relationship between
El Ni�o and the erosion of glaciers. In the
Peruvian Andes, some places are seeing increased water supplies, but as
the ice melts down, people will be hard hit during the dry summers, when
glaciers normally release water. In La Paz, Bolivia and its suburb of El
Alto, more than 2 million people get about a third of their drinking water
from glaciers and these have shrunk by more than half since the 1960s. It is believed
that the loss of glaciers is probably part of a natural process that began
with the end of the last ice age, but man made climate change is no doubt
playing an important role in accelerating the process.
The presence of man on planet Earth has, as any living entity that develops and grows, a cause and effect relationship on its surroundings. For tens of thousands of years this presence had a minimum impact, first during the era in which a nomadic presence defined man�s activities and, later, as the provisioning of food changed from hunting and gathering, to agricultural practices. As nature led its course, man had to adjust his activities to it, moving when climatic conditions became difficult and settling where these conditions were less severe. Nature dictated and man adjusted to nature�s dictates. Before the beginning of the Christian Era, total world population
barely reached 100 million. Before this, it took over 50,000 years �a
mere fracture of a second in the clock of earth�s evolution-, for man to
reach 10 million. In the middle ages, the presence of man began to impact the natural biological balance of earth through the first recorded occurrence of plagues that seriously diminished population numbers in certain areas. In spite of this, in 3,000 years population increased by one hundred fold over the former recorded 6,000 years. By the middle of the 18th century, world total reached 791
million, prompting economists such as Thomas Malthus to predict an
oncoming unsustainability in the planet�s capacity to feed its
population if recorded growth rates did not diminish drastically. The so
called Malthusian catastrophy was not far off in predicting that
population would continue to grow at a geometric rate, but did not foresee
technological advances that would increase agricultural yields. The apparent fact is that Malthus`s dyer predictions on world
hunger due to unchecked population growth did not happen in the lapse of
time predicted, but have probably been pushed up by a couple of more
centuries. The situation at the beginning of the 21st century seems,
from a global standpoint, sustainable. The information gathered for this
paper seems to imply this. This, however, unfortunately is a
generalization. A more detailed approach shows that some of the areas of
the world are responding to unsustainable situations in feeding resident
population by either having reached a point of crisis or are well on their
way of reaching it by the end of the century. The future of course can only be envisaged by theoretical assumptions
of trends that have been calculated considering birth and death rates and
that are permanently being corrected by such organizations as FAO and the
Bureau of the Census of the U.S. government.
The bottom line differs in accordance to areas that are
economically developed and those that are not, which once again shows that
there are significant deviations between the global figures and those that
refer to specific areas. A sense of alleviation that the low or negative
reposition figures show for most of Europe and North America seems far
fetched in most of the other corners of the world, very notably in North
Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, and probably most of the Latin
American nations. Besides the political implications of growing unrest due to an
inability to feed people, there are implications that have a domino effect
involving continued technological development that will be forced to find
solutions to, foremost, assure food availability and this alone has
repercussions on land use, growing production of fossil fuel availability,
growing use of water and -less known at this stage and subject to divided opinions
from the political and science establishments - effects on climate and the
natural environment. The facts seem to indicate that technological development to substantially increase food production seem to have reached a ceiling. Some consideration has been given to a so-called second green revolution based entirely on biotechnology, but the feasibility of this is still doubtful. The more obvious effects of producing more food are increased use to already scarce resources: land, water and the extraction of fuel, be this fossil or bio. If the model here defined is used to build a matrix that could be fed
with reliable data, the result would undoubtedly be a drastic reduction of
land that will have to be taken from the already thinning forest cover
and, according to data that has been gathered and analyzed, this will have
unmeasured effects on climate -probably
equivalent to an acceleration of natural changes-
and unquestionable negative impact on water availability.
If one is less conservative on all these issues, a probable domino
effect, measured in hundreds of years versus hundreds of thousands of
geological and climate changes, could signify massive changes in polar and
glacial cover, an announced catastrophy is within the realm of
possibilities that should be considered. If one accepts that the origin of all these predictions is growing
population numbers, the obvious solution is to find ways that to reduce
growth rates. China is doing
it successfully. As the population question does not stand alone, related factors as
modeled here will also have to be seriously dealt with and the axis is new
and appropriate technology: if technological development has been able to
change nature by accelerating super long trends, it should also be able to
revert them. The unknown element in the equation is time. The lighting of
the fuse is political decision making in an environment of honest
consensus. BIOGRAPHICAL
SOURCES Data and other information was gathered from a thorough search in the Internet. The following are the sources that were used and researched: United Nations. 1992. Long Range World Population Projection: Two Centuries of Population Growth. 1950-2150. New York. Caldwell, John C. 1976.
Toward a Statement of Demographic Transition Theory. Population and
Development Review. Coale, Ansley J. and Susan J. Watkins. 1997. The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton University Press. Davis, Kingsley. 1963.
The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History. Population
Index The United States Census Bureau. Washington, D.C., as cited in various blogs. Stockholm Environment Institute. Stockholm, Sweden. Reported source in a paper on the Ozone layer. Congressional Report. Hearing on Scientific Integrity and the Public Trust: the Science behind Federal Policies and Mandates. Case Study 1 � Stratospheric Ozone: Myth and Realities. 104th Congress. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO. World Agriculture 2030: Main Findings . Rome, 2002 - World Agriculture. Towards 2015/2030. Summary Report. Economic and Social Department. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1995. Report to IPCC from Working Group 1: Policy Makers Summary of the Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. University of Colorado. National Snow and Ice Data Center. Various opinions and data cited in Internet blogs. Journal of Geophysical Research. Various opinions and data cited in Internet blogs. Berthier, Etienne. Laboratory for the Study and Geophysics and Oceanography from Space. Toulouse, France. Images and information monitoring changes of the Mer de Glace. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Washington, D.C. Various opinions and data cited in Internet blogs. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Information on greenhouse effect described and cited in Internet blog. NOAA and NASA. Washington, D.C. Data on temperature changes cited in an EPA webpage. National Academy of Sciences. Washington, D.C. Data on history of world temperature changes. Wikipedia. The Free Encyclopedia. Search on world population statistics and information. Earth Policy Institute.
Eco-economy Indicators. Temperature statistics taken from Goddard
Institute for Space Studies. Science Directorate. Global Temperature
Anomalies. [1] A theory that wages tend, in the long run, to equal the amount necessary to support life. [2] Includes Canada, the United States, Bahamas, Pierre and Miquelon and Greenland.
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